Overview of The 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America released its 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Although the 2020 inductees, consisting of Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, and Marvin Miller, never got the chance to deliver speeches in front of thousands of baseball fans in July, the next class of Hall of Famers will be elected nonetheless. The results of this year’s voting will be announced on January 26th and any new members will be inducted along with last year’s class on July 25th in Cooperstown, New York.
Fourteen players are returning from last year’s ballot. Here is a look at how many years they have appeared on the ballot and the percentage of votes they received a year ago (BBWAA requires a player to receive 75% or more of the votes to be elected):
Curt Schilling - 70.0% (9th year): With a Postseason record and ERA of 11-2 and 2.23 over 133.1 innings, Schilling ranks among the best playoff pitchers in the game’s history.
Roger Clemens - 61.0% (9th year): Clemens has a remarkable 7 Cy Young Awards, one of which he won in the same year he took home the American League MVP (1986).
Barry Bonds - 60.7% (9th year): Baseball’s all-time home run leader won 7 MVP Awards, 8 Gold Glove Awards, and was named to the All-Star team 14 times. What is a little less known is that Bonds also stole 514 bases in his 22 year career.
Omar Vizquel - 52.6% (4th year): Vizquel’s best season occurred in 1999 when he hit for a .333 average and stole 42 bases while winning the Gold Glove. It was his only season in which he eclipsed the .300 average mark, and he also was voted to the All-Star Game.
Scott Rolen - 35.3% (4th year): 1997’s NL Rookie of the Year maintained an impressive career. Aside from playing a stellar third base, Rolen had a 122 OPS+.
Billy Wagner - 31.7% (6th year): Wagner was a hard-throwing lefthander and 7-time All-Star. He saved 422 games and had a 2.31 ERA in his dominant career.
Gary Sheffield - 30.5% (7th year): Sheffield did not only have one of the game’s best batting stances and most violent swings, but he was one of the best sluggers to step into a batter’s box. In 22 seasons, he clubbed 509 home runs and maintained a .393 on-base percentage.
Todd Helton - 29.2% (3rd year): Helton is the dark horse pick to make a significant increase in his vote percentage this year. In fact, it is not completely out of the realm of possibility that the 17-year Rockies’ legend joins Larry Walker in the next induction ceremony. The one nitpick against Helton was that he was assisted by the nature of Coors Field, where he hit .345 AVG/.441 OBP/1.048 OPS with 227 home runs in his career. On the flip side, Helton hit .287 AVG/.386 OBP/.855 OPS with 142 home runs away from Coors Field, which is nothing to be ashamed of.
Manny Ramirez - 28.2% (5th year): Manny Ramirez’s Hall of Fame judgment will always be hampered by his two failed tests for PEDs in 2009 and 2011, not to mention the suspicion that the usage occurred throughout his career. With that aside, Ramirez truly was one of the greatest hitters in the game’s history. In 1999, he knocked in 165 runs, hit 44 homers, and had a 1.105 OPS for the Cleveland Indians in the second of his eleven consecutive All-Star seasons.
Jeff Kent - 27.5% (8th year): Kent will always be best known for the MVP season he assembled in 2000. That year, he hit 33 homers, drove in 125 runs, and hit for average (.334) in a lineup that featured Barry Bonds. Second basemen with power are rare and Kent was able to accrue 377 dingers and 560 doubles in his 17 years in the majors.
Andruw Jones - 19.4% (4th year): Jones was one of the best fielding centerfielders in the game’s history. The Curacao native certainly lived up to the hype when he was named the number one prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 1996. Perhaps the greatest of his 17 seasons occurred in 2005, when Jones hit 51 home runs with 128 RBI while finishing second in the MVP race to Albert Pujols.
Sammy Sosa - 13.9% (9th year): For most baseball fans that were around then, Sosa’s name serves as a reminder to the 1998 season. He and slugger Mark McGwire basically performed an in-season home run derby, with Sosa smacking 66 round trippers and McGwire with 70. Sosa then followed it up with 63 homers in 1999. Unfortunately, like McGwire, Sosa has been connected with the steroid scandal in baseball. He also served a suspension in 2003 for using a corked bat in a regular season game. These marks have caused major hesitation among the voters and have resulted in the 609 career home run hitter to be stuck 61.1% shy of election.
Andy Pettitte - 11.3% (3rd year): The most remarkable facts about Pettitte are that he played in 8 World Series, and won 5 of them with the Yankees, on his way to winning 19 career Postseason games. Andy totaled 256 wins and 2,448 strikeouts. The strikeout total is the 15th most for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history. Pettitte is however another candidate whose Hall of Fame chances are clouded by PED usage.
Bobby Abreu - 5.5% (2nd year): As great of a player as Abreu was, his chances of being elected to the Hall are slim. He finished his career with just under 300 home runs (288), just under 2,500 hits (2,470), exactly 400 stolen bases, and a .395 on-base percentage. He was selected to 2 All-Star Games, and won 1 of each a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove.
It is safe to assume that the players on the list from Manny Ramirez to Bobby Abreu will not be elected this year. Even for a player like Scott Rolen, the odds of jumping 39.7% and receiving that exciting phone call this time are not particularly great. But Rolen will have six more bites at the apple, and has a solid chance to make the Hall within his next three ballots. Let’s first focus on the most dire and possible cases this offseason.
Curt Schilling was a mere 5% away from induction last year. If his playing career at all resembles his time on the Hall of Fame ballot, one would have to expect Schilling to close out strongly. The second half of his 20-year career was remarkable. In his eleventh season, 1998, Schilling tossed an unbelievable 15 complete games for the Philadelphia Phillies. He then led the Diamondbacks, alongside Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, to a championship in 2001, a season in which he won 22 regular season games. He won 23 games the following season and pitched well in 2003 as well, but missed some starts due to injury. The Diamondbacks then traded him to the Boston Red Sox, the team that originally drafted him in 1986. He won 21 games in his first season there in 2004, which then led to a memorable Postseason with the notorious “Bloody Sock Game” in the ALCS. That was one round prior to winning another World Series as Boston celebrated breaking The Curse. In his final season in 2007, Schilling celebrated yet another World Series win in Boston.
However, Schilling does not find himself on the outside looking in due to any doubts about his career or how talented he was as a pitcher. Instead, voters have been mostly turned away by the former ace’s character. Some of the BBWAA voters have declared Schilling ineligible in their minds due to the “Character Clause” of the Hall of Fame Election Rules. The clause states that writers are to consider a player’s character when voting. The writers that have exercised this clause on Schilling argue that he does not support equal human rights and worry that baseball would be negatively affected by having Schilling represent it in Cooperstown. In the end, it does seem likely that Schilling will gain the 5% he needs and become an inductee either this year or next. After all, Schilling did gain 9.1% year-over-year from voting in 2019 to 2020.
Similarly, the Hall of Fame cases for Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are not still pending because of statistical shortcomings or lack of longevity. Clemens has over 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Bonds is MLB’s career and single-season home run leader. But everybody knows that these two players are the icons of baseball’s “Steroid Era”. In order for Clemens and Bonds to reach the pinnacle of baseball, they will need an influx of younger voters who may not turn the other way at the idea of inducting players that are closely tied to one of baseball’s widest scandals. Each need to net just under 15% more votes than they received on the 2020 ballot in order to be inducted. From 2019 to 2020, Clemens only mustered up an increase of 0.5% and Bonds was able to make a 1.6% jump in the same timeframe. Each will need a bit more of a hike in support in order to make the Hall of Fame.
Omar Vizquel is the returning player with the highest percentage of votes who is not widely controversial for reasons outside of talent evaluation. Vizquel made a 9.8% jump last year and will likely make another jump in 2021. The Venezuelan-born slick-fielding shortstop played 24 seasons in the Major Leagues. In fact, Vizquel dominated the shortstop position so much so that he was awarded 9 consecutive Gold Glove Awards (1993-2001) and then took home the award again in back-to-back seasons (2005-06). That makes a grand total of 11 Gold Gloves, along with 3 All-Star Game selections (1998-99, 2002). On the offensive side, Vizquel put together fair numbers in most seasons, but only hit 80 career home runs to go with his respectable .272 batting average. His case is helped by his nearly 3,000 hits (2,877) and 404 stolen bases. Vizquel was a mainstay in baseball and is on the brink of doing the same in the Hall of Fame.
There were 11 first-timers placed on this year’s ballot. It would serve as a surprise if any players make it on their first try, but it is definitely possible that some new names will be around for more than one attempt. First-time players on the ballot are required to receive 5% of the votes this season in order to remain on the ballot next year. Here are the new players on the ballot along with their career bWAR as compared to Hall of Famers at their position:
Mark Buehrle - SP - 59.1 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 73.3 bWAR): The 5-time All-Star was also a 4-time Gold Glove winner, and you may remember the ridiculous play he made when he fielded a groundball down the first baseline and flipped it on the run with his glove through his legs to the first baseman for the out.
A.J. Burnett - SP - 28.8 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 73.3 bWAR): On May 12, 2001, Burnett threw a no-hitter for the Florida Marlins against the San Diego Padres which marked the true beginning of a very respectable MLB career. He was on the Marlins’ roster in the regular season, but was injured for the 2003 World Series. He went on to win the 2009 World Series with the Yankees and struck out 2,513 batters in his career. His lone All-Star Game selection came in his 17th and final MLB season, when he was on the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.
Michael Cuddyer - RF - 17.8 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 71.9 bWAR): Cuddyer played for the Twins for 11 seasons before spending 3 with the Rockies and then his final season on the Mets. He was awarded a Silver Slugger in 2013 while in Colorado. He was also selected to his second and final All-Star Game that year, the first of which had come in 2011 with the Twins. Cuddyer ended his playing days with 197 home runs and an .805 OPS.
Dan Haren - SP - 35.1 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 73.3 bWAR): Haren strung together an impressive 7 consecutive seasons (2005-2011) of at least 215 innings pitched. He struck out over 2,000 batters (2,013 total) and had a 3.75 career ERA. His three All-Star Game selections came consecutively, from 2007 to 2009.
LaTroy Hawkins - RP - 17.8 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 39.1 bWAR): Hawkins played for 11 teams in his 21 seasons and logged 127 saves. Longevity plays on Hawkins’ side, but he failed to reach 1,000 strikeouts (983) and had a 4.31 career ERA.
Tim Hudson - SP - 57.9 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 73.3 bWAR): Hudson was not a true strikeout pitcher, but was extremely effective, marking a 3.49 career ERA. In his second season, he won 20 games for the A’s and finished second in the 2000 AL Cy Young race.
Torii Hunter - CF - 50.7 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 71.3 bWAR): Torii Hunter was an absolute star in centerfield, known for robbing home runs and making diving catches. He also hit 353 home runs and stole 195 bases.
Aramis Ramirez - 3B - 32.4 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 68.4 bWAR): Ramirez had a long 18-year career where he mashed 386 home runs. He had a career OPS of .833 and won a Silver Slugger in 2011. It would be a surprise for Ramirez to accrue the 5% of votes needed to return to the ballot next year.
Nick Swisher - RF - 21.5 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 71.9 bWAR): As much as Swisher does not lack in his personality, he does lack in games played. The fan favorite only played in 1,527 career games, but was able to hit 245 home runs. He won the 2009 World Series as a member of the Yankees and followed it up in 2010 with his only All-Star Game selection.
Shane Victorino - CF - 31.5 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 71.3 bWAR): “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” earned the nickname by soaring all across the outfield throughout the majority of his 12-year career. He played key roles in winning the World Series for the 2008 Phillies and the 2013 Red Sox. He only played in 1,299 games and hit 108 home runs and stole 231 bases.
Barry Zito - SP - 31.9 career bWAR (Hall of Famer Position Average: 73.3 bWAR): His 12-6 curveball constantly made opponents’ knees buckle. The lefty won the Cy Young in 2002 when he won 23 games and maintained a 2.75 ERA for Oakland. Zito then struggled towards the middle of his career before bouncing back at the end of his tenure with the Giants. In 2012, he won the World Series after winning 15 regular season games. He won 165 games in his career, along with 1,885 strikeouts, coming up short of the typical benchmarks for Hall of Famers.
Many of these first time hopefuls are unlikely to eclipse the 5% mark and see themselves on the ballot next year. But there are three cases that stand out as more compelling than the rest.
First, 9-time Gold Glove Award winner and 5-time All-Star, Torii Hunter, patrolled centerfield for most of his 19-year career. As fantastic an athlete as Hunter was, he only managed to finish in the top 10 for MVP voting once in his entire career (Hunter finished 6th in 2002). He did take home 2 Silver Sluggers and accrued 2,452 hits, but defense was what made Hunter very special. At just 20.6 bWAR below the average Hall of Fame centerfielders, Hunter does stand a chance to live on the ballot for a second time.
Starting pitchers Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle possess the other of the top three newcomers’ resumés. Each won over 200 games (222 and 214 respectively) and one World Series. Hudson was consistently effective in his 17 Major League seasons, but did battle injuries. He was the 2010 AL Comeback Player of the Year after only 7 starts in 2009. On the other hand, Buehrle started 30-plus games in all 15 of his seasons as a starting pitcher (he was a reliever for his rookie season). Of the 493 career starts Buehrle made, the most melorable came on July 23, 2009, when he hurled the 18th perfect game in MLB history. Hudson and Buehrle will likely receive the most votes of new pitchers on the ballot.
There are no players on this year’s ballot that are on their final year of eligibility. All eyes will be on Schilling, Clemens, and Bonds, as their induction could open up the possibility for many players in the future to make the Hall of Fame.
