The San Diego Padres Now Have the Best Rotation in Baseball, and it Happened Overnight

Padres’ General Manager A.J. Preller.
Photo Via: Jake Roth — USA Today Sports

In fewer than 24 hours, the Padres acquired Blake Snell from Tampa Bay and Yu Darvish from Chicago. Let’s first map out what their starting rotation will likely be in each of the next two seasons.

2021

1. Yu Darvish

2. Blake Snell

3. Dinelson Lamet

4. Chris Paddack

5. Adrian Morejon

2022

1. Yu Darvish

2. Blake Snell

3. Mike Clevinger

4. Dinelson Lamet

5. Chris Paddack

6. Mackenzie Gore

7. Adrian Morejon

The team also currently has left-handers Joey Lucchesi and promising prospect Ryan Weathers on the roster. Certainly, no team in MLB has this much pitching depth.

Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack were each in the Padres rotation for the start of the 2020 season. Lamet had a breakout short-season, but Paddack had a tough time.

In 12 starts, Lamet put together 93 strikeouts in 69 innings to go with a 2.09 ERA. He threw his slider about 53% of the time, which peppered the lower glove side of the zone. This set him up to use his fastball, which is consistently in high-90s, on both sides of the plate. Lamet’s fastball is in the 95th percentile league-wide for velocity, and also in the 91st for spin rate. His third pitch is a sinker, but he only threw it about 9% of his pitches.

Paddack got hit hard in 2020, at a hard hit rate of 47.4%. Paddack is a power pitcher that likes to use the fastball and changeup together. The fastballs are supposed to be up in the zone with the changeup dying to the bottom of the zone. His fastball missed to the middle of the plate way too often, which resulted in a 4.73 ERA. The fastball averaged 94 mph, but was down at times from the high-90s stuff he had shown in 2018 and 2019 from Double-A to the majors. If Paddack stays healthy and keeps that fastball up, he will likely be very successful, especially considering his walk rate has stayed consistently low (5.5% in 2019 and 4.9% in 2020).

New arrivals Yu Darvish and Blake Snell bring impressive resumés with them. Yu Darvish has the highest strikeout per 9 innings rate (11.1 K/9) in baseball history for qualified pitchers. Blake Snell won the American League Cy Young Award in 2018.

Darvish completely shook up his pitch mix over the past season and a half. He uses his cutter four times as often as he did in 2018, and has done so by trading it out with the four-seam fastball, which has been reduced by more than half of the rate he threw it. He also reduced the usage of his slider and sinker, reintroduced us to his splitter, and increased the usage of his curveball. He completely wiped his changeup from his arsenal. With a true five-pitch mix, Darvish creates uncomfortable at bats for hitters. His walk rate dropped from 11.7% in 2018 to an elite 4.7% in 2020. The new mix gives him better command in the zone and a blend of velocities and movements.

Snell’s mission is clear when he steps to the mound. He throws his four-seam fastball, which averages 95 mph, about 50% of the time. He loves to throw it at the top of the strike zone to set up his other three pitches. To right-handed batters, he uses a changeup, slider, and curveball. All three pitches are thrown low. The changeup and slider are about 88 mph, and the curve averages at 80 mph. To left-handed batters, Snell threw zero changeups in 2020. He likes to keep the ball moving glove side, so he throws the fastball up and the slider and curve down. Changing eye level and velocity has been the name of the game for Snell, as he has maintained a great strikeout rate for three consecutive seasons.

Darvish, Snell, Lamet, and Paddack alone make for a fantastic rotation, but the 2022 Padres can also expect to see Mike Clevinger take the ball every fifth day. Clevinger features a four-seamer, slider, curve, change, and now a cutter as well. Another deadly five-pitch repertoire will make for consecutive tough days at the office for teams coming to play San Diego. However, like Snell, he does not throw the changeup to opposite handed batters. Clevinger throws hard, with his fastball averaging 95 mph but touching the high-90s at times. He rocks back and forth as he delivers the pitch, and has finished each season since 2017 with an ERA under 3.20. He underwent Tommy John surgery in November, so the Padres are hopeful he will be ready to start at the beginning of the 2022 season.

The 21-year old lefty Mackenzie Gore is the Padres’ top prospect according to MLB.com’s rankings. He has yet to make his major league debut, however it is not expected that he will need much more time to sharpen his game. The Padres may be forced to make a tough decision soon as to whether Gore will enter the starting rotation and who will be bounced from the group.

Ryan Weathers is the next young, promising lefty. Weathers made his MLB debut for the Padres in the 2020 Postseason. However, 2020 was a weird year even for baseball call-ups, so it does not necessarily mean Weathers will be accruing major league time to start 2021. The 21-year old son of former major leaguer David Weathers will eventually be in someone’s major league rotation, but for now he will provide great depth to the Padres batch of starters.

Another 21-year old lefty, Adrian Morejon, who impressed scouts throughout his time in the minor leagues will be vying for the fifth rotation spot. Morejon debuted in 2019 and threw 18 innings in the majors in 2020. His fastball averages near 97 mph, but his splitter is what grabbed many viewers’ attention. The pitch spins almost at the rate of a knuckleball and is tough to track to the plate. Keep an eye on his development because Morejon can become a frontline starter some day soon.

Joey Lucchesi made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019. Each season produced middle of the road numbers for the lefty. He had a 4.08 then 4.18 ERA in each respective season. In his 3 appearances in 2020, he surrendered 5 runs in 5.2 innings. He provides more back-end rotation depth and would be in the starting five for mostly any other team in baseball.

So far this offseason, the Padres have done the most to improve their team for the next two seasons. The embarassment of riches in the organization between the major league level and the minor leagues may be the best balance in MLB. In a 2021 season that may require a six man rotation at times, due to the innings decrease from the shortened season last year, the Padres are best equipped to throw elite major league ready pitchers on a daily basis.