The Dodgers and Padres Are Competing Year-Round: Inside the Best Modern Rivalry in Baseball
Photo Via: K.C. Alfred - San Diego-Union Tribune
Two franchises with completely different histories, yet only 122 miles of physical separation, are on a collision course in the National League West division. The Dodgers and Padres, with front offices led by Andrew Friedman and A.J. Preller, respectively, have built powerhouses equipped for deep Postseason runs, but one fan base, at minimum, will be disappointed each year. Los Angeles has long controlled the NL West… are the Dodgers in danger of becoming a Wild Card team for the first time since 2012? Well, I am not sure, but I do know the division has two teams capable of winning a championship this season. The best way to describe the buildup of the San Diego versus Los Angeles rivalry is to take it back four years and bring you the complete picture.
The Dodgers (2017-2019)
In 2017, the Los Angeles Dodgers were gearing up for their fifth consecutive division title. Shortstop Corey Seager had just taken home the National League Rookie of the Year Award in the previous season and the tall left-handed first baseman/outfielder named Cody Bellinger was set to make his debut. The Dodgers had lost in the NLDS twice and NLCS twice in the previous four seasons. Even with ace Clayton Kershaw, stud closer Kenley Jansen, lightning rod Yasiel Puig, All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal, and breakout third baseman Justin Turner on the roster, the Dodgers’ squad was unable to punch their ticket to the World Series.
But the team was littered with veteran leadership, from second basemen Chase Utley and Logan Forsythe to pitcher Rich Hill and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Under the guidance of the seasoned veterans, the young players were able to develop their game in 2017 and eventually lead to the front office’s midseason decision: to go for it. The Dodgers added outfielder Curtis Granderson, but the real blockbuster move occurred when L.A. traded for starter Yu Darvish. The Dodgers took the next step forward that season, but did not reach their ultimate goal. Los Angeles made the World Series and lost to the Houston Astros in seven games (although Houston was later discovered to have cheated during the 2017 regular season and Postseason).
The 2018 Dodgers faced a different path on the journey to October baseball. The team started out slow (16-26 through 42 games) and shortstop Corey Seager was to miss the rest of the season due to an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery. But the emergence of Max Muncy as a power threat (35 homers) and rookie pitcher Walker Buehler’s dominance (2.62 ERA in 23 starts), helped keep the Dodgers’ sights on the Postseason. The front office once again made a push to improve before the trade deadline, acquiring Manny Machado from the Orioles. Machado took over the shortstop position and the Dodgers found themselves back in the World Series. After losing to Mookie Betts, David Price, and the Boston Red Sox in five games, Dodgers fans were left scratching their heads again.
In the following year, the Dodgers dominated the regular season. The 2019 club won 106 games, mostly as a result of their phenomenal starting pitching. Hyun Jin Ryu finished second in the NL Cy Young race with a 2.32 ERA in 29 starts and emerged as a third star in the rotation with Kershaw and Buehler. However, October arrived and the dominance discontinued. The Washington Nationals beat the Dodgers in five games in the NLDS, taking the lead in the finale with back-to-back home runs off of Clayton Kershaw, who entered the game out of the bullpen.
The Padres (2017-2019)
In contrast with the Dodgers’ constant Postseason presence, the 2017 Padres arrived fresh off of their sixth consecutive season with a losing record. Wil Myers had just completed his only All-Star season, Dinelson Lamet was on the way to the major leagues, and reliever Craig Stammen was added to the roster. Other than those three names, the 2017 Padres were comprised of players that are no longer with the organization. There was not much hope amidst San Diego that the Padres were ready to turn things around in the near future. The 2017 team went on to win only 71 games, and although the farm system was improving, it was not yet the best in baseball. However, during that subsequent offseason, the Padres made one of their most impactful acquisitions.
In mid-February 2018, the club signed first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million deal. Hosmer was a World Series champion and entered free agency after winning a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove in 2017. Although Hosmer has yet to produce at that level for the Friars, the deal’s significance was marked by the organization’s culture change. For the first time in years, the Padres had a player the team can market and build around.
Even still, wins were hard to come by in 2018, as San Diego only pulled off 66 victories. The Padres dealt two of their best bullpen arms, Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, to Cleveland prior to the deadline in exchange for switch-hitting catching prospect Francisco Mejia. Starting pitching faltered throughout the season, as lefty Joey Lucchesi led the rotation with a 4.08 ERA. But help was on the way, as MLB.com finally ranked the Padres’ farm system as the best in baseball prior to the 2018 season. Five San Diego pitchers graced the Top 100 prospects list (Mackenzie Gore, Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon, and Anderson Espinoza). Shortstop prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. launched himself into the top ten prospects by breaking out in 2017 and continuing to play well in 2018. Also, major league outfielders Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe emerged as power-hitting righties (.498 and .504 slugging, respectively).
As players arrived at Spring Training in February of 2019, the Friars were considerably unimproved from the prior season, other than the ability to promote prospects. But in the third week of the month, the club landed the biggest free agency signing in its history. Manny Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres just months after he was traded to the Dodgers. The left side of the infield was set to become the Machado-Tatis Jr. combination and a sensible lineup was beginning to form. Pitching prospect Chris Paddack burst onto the scene and was ready to debut in the major leagues. The 2019 team started out with a respectable 28 wins and 24 losses, and Tatis Jr. already missed over a month with a pulled hamstring. But as the team dropped to sub-.500, it entered the trade market in search of prospects to bolster the farm system even more. Slugger Franmil Reyes and pitcher Logan Allen, along with a minor leaguer, were traded in a three-team deal that sent Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati, Yasiel Puig to Cleveland, and outfield prospect Taylor Trammell to San Diego. Tatis Jr.’s season, although extremely productive, ended in August due to a back injury and the Padres finished with only 70 wins. It was a disappointing ending to a semi-hopeful season, but the front office was ready to make key improvements now that there was a glimmer of hope and framework to build on.
The 2020 Season
The Dodgers remained the clear NL West favorite heading into 2020, but the Padres finally entered the conversation as a potential Wild Card team after a busy offseason, mostly on the trade front. Early in the offseason, the Padres took a few pieces from the Brewers when Drew Pomeranz signed a four-year deal and starter Zach Davies and outfielder Trent Grisham were traded to San Diego for second baseman prospect Luis Urias and pitcher Eric Lauer. San Diego also acquired outfielder Tommy Pham and rookie utility-man Jake Cronenworth from Tampa Bay when it sent Hunter Renfroe and highly-regarded, yet “slapdick prospect” Xavier Edwards to the Rays (thanks for the term, Blake Snell, and we will talk about you later). The same two teams became trade partners again when the Padres sent outfielder Manuel Margot to the Rays for reliever Emilio Pagan. In the same offseason, San Diego paired up with Oakland for a couple of trades resulting in former top prospect Jurickson Profar’s and speedy utility-man Jorge Mateo’s arrivals. The season then began and the Padres’ excitement faded away through 23 games and an 11-12 record. San Diego needed a spark, and found the electricity on a trip to Texas.
In the 8th inning of the first game of the series with the Padres leading 10-3, their young star Tatis Jr. stepped to the plate and took 3 pitches outside the strike zone. Then on the 3-0 count, Fernando tanked one the opposite way and over the wall for a grand slam. Manny Machado then dug into the batter’s box against a new pitcher, rookie Ian Gibaut, and the first pitch sailed behind him. Rangers’ manager Chris Woodward may not have known at the time, but his anger at Tatis Jr. for swinging at the 3-0 pitch led to the birth of “Slam Diego”. In the very next game, also in Texas, Wil Myers squared a ball up for a grand slam, and the buzz kept growing. The next day, the Padres played the Rangers again, this time in San Diego, and trailed by one in the bottom of the tenth inning. Manny Machado had the bases loaded and drilled a walk-off grand slam off of reliever Rafael Montero. Slam Diego had officially taken off and the fans were foaming at the mouth for the Padres to take the field. In the final game against the Rangers, history was made. In the fifth inning, Eric Hosmer laced another Padres’ grand slam, making it a record four games in a row that a team accomplished the feat.
The Padres’ record grew to 20-14, so the club entered the trade market once again in an attempt to bolster its chances of advancing through the Postseason. It dealt prospects to Kansas City for flamethrowing reliever Trevor Rosenthal, then a day later acquired veteran first baseman Mitch Moreland from Boston. Another day went by and the Padres sent outfield prospect Taylor Trammell, infielder Ty France, catcher Luis Torrens, and reliever Andres Muñoz (and his 100+ mph fastball) to Seattle for a return centered around catcher Austin Nola. That same day, San Diego received starting pitcher Mike Clevinger via trade, giving pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, top notch defensive catcher Austin Hedges, reliever Cal Quantrill, slugger Josh Naylor, and shortstop prospect Owen Miller. New manager Jayce Tingler’s squad was new and improved, but not everything went as according to plan. Prior to the Postseason, Clevinger suffered an elbow injury and was ruled out for the Wild Card Series. Dinelson Lamet, who had a dominant season going, was shelved late in the season and ruled out for the Postseason, also with an elbow injury. San Diego entered the Postseason without its two best pitchers and faced a tough task ahead. After losing Game 1 to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Padres clawed back and won the initial Wild Card Series 2-1 (Tatis Jr. had another electric home run in Game 2). The Friars used 9 pitchers in the final 9 innings to clinch the series.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, proceeded through the regular season like a hot knife through butter, despite losing Ryu to the Blue Jays in free agency. Los Angeles only lost one regular season series to Colorado in September, and I can think of a good reason as to why the season was so easy for them. In February of 2020, the Dodgers acquired superstar rightfielder Mookie Betts and veteran pitcher David Price from the Red Sox, along with reliever Brusdar Graterol from the Twins in a three-team deal. The Dodgers shipped outfielder Alex Verdugo, prospect infielder Jeter Downs, and a low-level prospect up to Boston and sent veteran starter Kenta Maeda and a prospect to Minnesota. Although Betts gave them everything they could ask for (.292 batting average with 16 homers and 10 steals), David Price opted out due to COVID-19 and did not impact the 2020 season. Since the Dodgers rolled through the regular season with ease, the club did not scramble to make moves. Their only notable midseason trade occurred when L.A. traded pitcher Ross Stripling to the Blue Jays.
Los Angeles continued its dominance in the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers. After winning Game 1, the Dodgers, led by Kershaw, shut out the Brewers in the clinching Game 2. The stage was finally set, after the Padres’ Game 3 win over the Cardinals, for the long awaited Dodgers versus Padres Postseason series.
The 2020 NLDS
The Padres returned to the scene of the aforementioned Tatis Jr. grand slam, facing off against the juggernaut Dodgers in Texas. Mike Clevinger started Game 1, but was removed two pitches into the second inning due to the reappearance of his elbow injury. Most baseball fans would say they were cheated out of a competitive series because of the late-season injuries suffered by the Padres’ pitching staff. Considering all the players that San Diego had to surrender to acquire Clevinger, the Padres were especially shorthanded. But there were still bright spots and heated moments between the two teams in the series.
Maybe not in the first game, when Tingler was ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire and the Dodgers won fairly easily. However, Game 2 brought us heightened drama and flared tempers. In the 7th inning with the Dodgers leading by one run, Fernando Tatis Jr. stepped up to bat for the Padres. He hit the ball just about as far as it can go without being a home run. Centerfielder Cody Bellinger followed the flight path of the ball and tracked it down, leaping over the center field wall to rob Tatis Jr. of the go-ahead home run. Graterol was on the mound and let out a huge roar, throwing his glove and screaming towards the sky. Machado took exception, and it led to a shouting match between the division foes. The Dodgers closed out the win in Game 2 and handled their business in Game 3 to advance to the NLCS.
Since the 2020 NLDS
The Dodgers ultimately proceeded to win the NLCS in seven games, clinching their third World Series appearance in four years. In contrast to their other two trips to the Fall Classic, the Dodgers became champions, beating the Rays to win their first World Series since 1988. Corey Seager was awarded the NLCS and World Series MVP trophies.
A few weeks later, MLB was back to business in the thick of the offseason. Free agency started slow (other than for international players with posting deadlines), but trade avenues faced bumper-to-bumper traffic, especially in San Diego. Within a matter of two days in late December, the Friars acquired former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell from the Rays, signed 25-year-old star Korean infielder Ha-seong Kim to a four-year deal, and traded for ace Yu Darvish, along with catcher Victor Caratini from the Cubs. In total, the Padres relinquished highly-regarded pitching prospect Luis Patiño, catcher/outfielder Francisco Mejia, starting pitcher Zach Davies, and six other minor leaguers. With Mike Clevinger facing a full year of recovery from Tommy John surgery, San Diego needed to build a starting rotation somehow. Just a few weeks later, the club traded again, this time in a three-team deal including the Pirates, for starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. The Padres sent Joey Lucchesi to the Mets in the trade.
After the trio of deals that brought 60% of the starting rotation, the Padres made improvements in the bullpen and utility departments. Utilityman and switch-hitter Jurickson Profar re-signed on a three-year deal. Then San Diego inked deals with veteran relief pitchers Mark Melancon and Keone Kela. The Padres’ bullpen may not be the best in the major leagues, but it certainly belongs in the top third.
Just yesterday, the Padres and face of the franchise Fernando Tatis Jr. reached an agreement on an enormous $340 million and 14-year extension. The deal was reported on the same day that pitchers and catchers reported to camp at spring training, essentially ending the offseason for the Friars.
Meanwhile the Dodgers had only acquired a few noteworthy players, specifically relievers, in a rather quiet offseason through the end of January. In another move with the Brewers, the Dodgers traded for Corey Knebel, who has experience closing games. Former Yankees setup man Tommy Kahnle will don the Dodger Blue for two seasons as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Blake Treinen re-signed to defend his World Series title.
Then, the Dodgers took free agency to the next level, signing top ranked free agent Trevor Bauer to an extraordinary contract. Bauer’s deal is for three years and $102 million, but he has player options after each season. Gearing up for another championship run, and seeing the Padres build a force of a rotation just south of them, the Dodgers exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax threshold to acquire Bauer, even with the possibility of him leaving after one season (although it’s more likely he leaves after two, since he makes the least money in his third year).
Just days later, Justin Turner re-signed with the team on a two-year, $34 million deal. Turner was a mainstay at third base for L.A. since 2014 and there likely would have been significant growing pains for the organization in replacing the veteran at the hot corner. By re-signing Turner, the Dodgers reaffirmed the idea that there is a battle going on in the NL West, and that there is no room to be nickle-and-diming to a division title.
2021 Roster Comparison
Here is a preview of all the players that will be involved in the fierce battles out west this season.
SD Projected Lineup
Trent Grisham - CF
Fernando Tatis Jr. - SS
Manny Machado - 3B
Eric Hosmer - 1B
Wil Myers - RF
Austin Nola - C
Jake Cronenworth - 2B
Tommy Pham - LF
SD Projected Bench
Ha-seong Kim - UT
Jurickson Profar - UT
Victor Caratini - C
Jorge Mateo - UT
SD Projected Rotation
Yu Darvish - RHP
Blake Snell - LHP
Dinelson Lamet - RHP
Chris Paddack - RHP
Joe Musgrove - RHP
SD Projected Bullpen
Drew Pomeranz - LHP - CL
Mark Melancon - RHP - SU
Emilio Pagan - RHP - SU
Keone Kela - RHP - MR
Matt Strahm - LHP - MR
Pierce Johnson - RHP - MR
Tim Hill - LHP - MR
Austin Adams - RHP - MR
Adrian Morejon - LHP - LR
SD Other Notable Players / Top Prospects
Javy Guerra - RHP - MR
Michel Baez - RHP - SP
Craig Stammen - RHP - MR
MacKenzie Gore - LHP - SP
Ryan Weathers - LHP - SP
C.J. Abrams - SS
Luis Campusano - C
Robert Hassell III - OF
Anderson Espinoza - RHP - SP
SD Current Injured List
Mike Clevinger - RHP - SP
Trey Wingenter - RHP - MR
LAD Projected Lineup
Mookie Betts - RF
Corey Seager - SS
Justin Turner - 3B
Cody Bellinger - CF
Max Muncy - 1B
Will Smith - C
A.J. Pollock - LF
Chris Taylor - 2B
LAD Projected Bench
Gavin Lux - 2B
Edwin Rios - INF
Austin Barnes - C
Matt Beaty - UT
LAD Projected Rotation
Walker Buehler - RHP
Trevor Bauer - RHP
Clayton Kershaw - LHP
David Price - LHP
Julio Urias - LHP
LAD Projected Bullpen
Kenley Jansen - RHP - CL
Blake Treinen - RHP - SU
Brusdar Graterol - RHP - SU
Corey Knebel - RHP - MR
Victor Gonzalez - LHP - MR
Joe Kelly - RHP - MR
Scott Alexander - LHP - MR
Tony Gonsolin - RHP - LR
Dustin May - RHP - LR
LAD Other Notable Players / Top Prospects
Dennis Santana - RHP - LR
Sheldon Neuse - INF
Alex Vesia - LHP - MR
Garrett Cleavinger - LHP - MR
Josiah Gray - RHP - SP
Keibert Ruiz - C
Kody Hoese - 3B
Michael Busch - 2B
Diego Cartaya - C
LAD Current Injured List
Tommy Kahnle - RHP - SU
Caleb Ferguson - LHP - MR
Roster Analysis
Both teams are amazingly crafted with a blend of veteran stars and developing youngsters. Perhaps the most intriguing of the matchups between the Padres and Dodgers is the starting rotation battle. There are four Cy Young Award winners between the two clubs and plenty of top prospects.
Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, and David Price pair up with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, and Mike Clevinger as the veteran cores of each franchise. I give the edge to the Dodgers, especially with Clevinger out for the 2021 season, but the Padres group is not anything to sneeze at either. Aside from staying healthy, each group does face a challenge. For Los Angeles, Price opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic, and there might be concerns about his readiness to throw 200 innings. However on the bright side, he is well-rested and as long as he kept in shape, he should be able to give the Dodgers what they need. For the Padres, getting Blake Snell to pitch deep into ballgames must be a priority. Of course, everybody remembers when Rays’ manager Kevin Cash gave him the quick hook in Game 6 of the World Series, but this was a theme for a long time for Snell (he did not complete six innings in any 2020 regular season game). The Padres surely have a talented bullpen, but it does not have the depth that Tampa Bay did, nor the benefit of a shortened season, so Snell pitching seven innings in an outing needs to become more commonplace.
Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Alex Vesia, and Josiah Gray are at similar career points to Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Ryan Weathers, and MacKenzie Gore. Here, I have the Padres slightly ahead in terms of potential. Lamet, 28, is a little on the older side of these young groups, but he has not yet thrown a full 162-game season. Last year, he broke out with a spectacular K/9 rate (12.1) and low ERA (2.09) thanks mostly to his devastating slider. Paddack made the jump from Double-A to the majors in 2019 and found instant success with a nasty changeup before struggling in 2020. Morejon has had limited time in the majors, but introduced an effective splitter to his repertoire (.167 batting average against the pitch). Weathers debuted in the 2020 Postseason and Gore is the top pitching prospect in baseball. On the flip side, Urias has been a major leaguer since 2016, but is still only 24-years-old and has already recorded the final out of a World Series. Gonsolin and May also have World Series experience already. May throws a 98 mph sinker and makes for a rather uncomfortable at bat for hitters. Vesia has only seen 4 major league innings, while Gray stands as the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect. The difference maker here is MacKenzie Gore. The left-handed starter is entering his age-22 season and already features a four-pitch mix ready for the major leagues.
The lineups also stack up well against each other, but the Dodgers have the better suited middle-of-the-order. Eric Hosmer is an important player for the Padres, but Cody Bellinger is a monster in the heart of the lineup for Los Angeles. Betts and Seager square up nicely against Tatis Jr. and Machado to the point where any team would gladly welcome either pair. The bottoms of each lineup have no easy outs either, but the Dodgers’ ability to place a hitter of A.J. Pollock’s caliber in the lower third is what makes the team so special.
That being said, the bench goes in favor of San Diego. The group of Kim, Profar, and Mateo provides the Padres with an abundance of versatility and speed. Victor Caratini was a solid add as the team’s backup catcher, as well. For the Dodgers, the bench is not really a weakness anyways. Barnes has been a formidable option at catcher and is the battery-mate of Kershaw. Gavin Lux is a former top ten prospect in baseball and could prove it at any moment. Ultimately, benches that provide flexibility tend to be more useful, so the Padres take this one.
Lastly, the bullpen matchup features many, many triple-digit fastballs. At this point in time, Drew Pomeranz is likely the best pitcher from either team’s bullpen. He posted a 1.45 ERA in 18.2 innings last season. However, the Dodgers have more depth. Jansen, Treinen, Graterol, Victor Gonzalez, Joe Kelly, and Knebel are all capable of locking down some big time innings, even though Jansen is on a clear regression path. The Padres have a few question marks with Kela coming over after reports of having forearm soreness last season and Emilio Pagan’s poor 2020 season that included bicep inflammation. Mark Melancon was a significant addition for San Diego, as he should become the setup man for Pomeranz. All in all, the bullpens will probably look different in October, but the Dodgers are deeper today as it stands.
The Seasons Ahead
Looking ahead, there will definitely be plenty of intense moments on the diamond that east coast baseball fans should stay up late for. Trevor Bauer will face his toughest opponent, Manny Machado, in the same division for the first time (Machado career: 10 for 17, .588 AVG, 4 HRs, 2 2Bs, 5 BBs, 2.078 OPS versus Bauer). The pitching rotations will be vying for superiority, whether the veteran arms are duking it out or the young, top prospects are bursting onto the scene. The power-heavy Dodgers lineup will square up against the scrappy and stylish Padres’ nine. There will be division titles on the line, individual achievements and accolades up for grabs, and, most importantly, bragging rights in play for two fan bases that are very familiar with each other.
Next Up
The Dodgers and Padres are scheduled to face off 19 times this season. The first big series will take place April 16-18 in San Diego. One week later, the squads will meet up again in Los Angeles for a four game set. They then play a series in June (21-23), one in August (24-26), one in early September (10-12), and then close out the month of September (28-30) with a three game matchup in L.A. Get your popcorn ready, because it is going to be a show.