Series Preview: Series 16 vs. Blue Jays
Photo via: G. Fiume — Getty ImagesAfter a well-deserved day off, the Yankees stay at home for one more series against the Blue Jays before heading to Detroit for the first leg of the road trip. The rotation is taking a 35 inning consecutive scoreless streak with it into the 3-game set. The Yankees have won 6 games in a row, 8 of their last 10, and 7 straight series.
Yankees Record: 28-19
Blue Jays Record: 23-23
Season Series: 2-4 (Blue Jays leading)
Lifetime Record: 367-300 (Yankees leading)
Game 1
Tuesday, May 25 — 7:05 pm — YES Network
Probable Pitchers: Steven Matz - LHP (TOR) vs. Corey Kluber - RHP (NYY)
Game Notes: Corey Kluber has faced the Blue Jays twice this season and has yet to exceed 4 innings pitched in a start. This time, Kluber is coming in with the utmost confidence after his no-hitter down in Texas. When the slider is moving the way it has been, all he needs to do is locate it well and mix the cutter and two-seamer enough to make hitters uncomfortable.
Steven Matz is making his first start against the Yankees since his trade to the Blue Jays. His last 4 starts against the Bombers were not great, but he has not pitched against the Yanks since July of 2018. Matz surrendered 5 runs in his last outing, which came against the Red Sox. Matz owns a 4.69 ERA in 2021.
Game 2
Wednesday, May 26 — 7:05 pm — YES Network
Probable Pitchers: Alek Manoah - RHP (TOR) vs. Domingo Germán - RHP (NYY)
Game Notes: This is just another start for Domingo Germán, but it is not any ordinary start for Alek Manoah. The 23-year-old right-hander is making his major league debut Wednesday night. He was the 11th overall pick of the 2019 draft for Toronto out of West Virginia University. Through 3 starts this season at Triple-A Buffalo, Manoah has allowed only 1 run in 18 innings. Manoah has a fastball-slider-changeup combination, with his upper-90’s fastball being the best of the bunch.
Germán is coming off a start of 7 shutout innings in Texas. He increased his changeup usage to induce whiffs and soft contact. A bad changeup can easily be punished, so Germán needs to pick his spots and locations to place the pitch. Germán’s season ERA is down to 3.05 after he has turned in 5 solid starts in a row. He was optioned to the Alternate Site in April and has not given the Yankees a reason to do that again since his return.
Game 3
Thursday, May 27 — 7:05 pm — YES Network, MLB Network
Probable Pitchers: Robbie Ray - LHP (TOR) vs. Jordan Montgomery - LHP (NYY)
Game Notes: Robbie Ray will make his second start against the Yanks this season. In his first matchup, Ray allowed 2 runs in 5 innings and took the loss. Overall, Ray has a respectable 3.42 ERA this season. He was reunited with a past pitching coach Pete Walker when he was traded to Toronto last season, and the duo worked to lower Ray’s walk rate. In 2020, he walked an astounding 7.8 batters per 9 innings. From 2018 to 2020, his total walk rate was 5.1 walks per 9 innings, which is still high. He did have a 12 K/9 in those same years, so he was able to find some success in getting out of jams, but Ray knew he could not sustain that walk rate and survive much longer. This season, Ray has a 1.9 BB/9 rate and a 10.5 K/9 rate, which is still well above the average starter. Ray has been throwing to targets set up by catchers right over the heart of the plate and has been less focused on working the edges of the strike zone. His natural pitch movement is pulling pitches off the middle of the plate and avoiding the dreaded meat ball zone, while also removing many walks per outing.
Jordan Montgomery is coming off the best start of his season (7 IP, 11 K, 0 R vs. White Sox). It was a great bounce back start for Gumby, who stumbled against the Orioles prior to that when the Yankees gave him a 4 run lead to work with. Monty has a 4.07 ERA on the year, and it sure would look great if he can get that number into the 3-range after this start. This will be Montgomery’s first start against the Blue Jays this season.
Sluggers to Watch
Gleyber Torres was unconscious this past weekend. He went 8 for 12 (.667) against the White Sox and used all fields to help drive in 8 runs. He gave the Yankees the lead in all 3 victories, including when he did it twice on Friday night with a walk-off single in the 9th inning to cap it off. Gleyber’s approach changed from swinging for the moon every time up to shortening his bat path, staying back on breaking pitches, and letting the barrel do the work for him. You have to keep an eye on Gleyber for this series simply because he has been too locked in to not watch him. He will face two lefties again and a rookie in between who likes to use his fastball. The matchups are not bad for Gleyber.
Gio Urshela is not coming into this series on fire at the plate (his glove is a different story). However, I like the matchups for Urshela this week. Urshela is another Yankee who uses all fields and hits well at home (.294 AVG in 2021). He tends to hit righties much better than lefties this season, and in the past, but the lefties Matz and Ray are not overpowering enough to get Gio out of his comfort zone. Urshela should be able to make hard contact all over the field and muster up hits this series.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. has been absolutely electric in 2021. The young first baseman leads the majors in home runs (15), OPS (1.104), and total bases (111) this year. He constantly punishes pitchers’ mistakes and has already accumulated 39 RBI (he had 33 in all of 2020). Over his last 7 days, Vlad Jr. is hitting .400 with 4 home runs. However, the splits do jump out at you when looking at what Vlad Jr. likes to see at the plate. 13 of his 15 home runs have come off of right-handed pitchers. He is hitting .353 against righties and .257 against lefties. Despite the average and power difference, he only strikes out in 11% of his at bats against lefties. So Vlad is making contact against everybody, but just makes better contact against righties. Look for him to be utilizing the entire stadium in the first two games.
Teoscar Hernández is hitting .419 with 2 dingers in his past week. Hernández is also hitting .311 with 4 homers on the road this season. He loves to hit the first pitch, as 3 of his homers have come on the first pitch of his at bat. He is hitting .529 this season on balls put in play on the first pitch of his at bats. Hernández will be first-pitch hunting against the Yankees in this series.
Injury Report
DH Giancarlo Stanton (strained left quad) has been taking batting practice over the past few days and could return from the injured list. He became eligible to return from the injured list on Monday.
OF Ryan LaMarre suffered a strained hamstring in the Texas series and was placed on the 10-day injured list, so he will miss the entire series.
CF Aaron Hicks (wrist surgery), OF Ryan LaMarre (pulled hamstring), RHP Clarke Schmidt (elbow strain), RHP Darren O’Day (strained rotator cuff), and RHP Luis Severino (Tommy John surgery) are all out for the series.
LHP Zack Britton (arthroscopic elbow surgery) was scheduled to begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Somerset last week, but it was delayed after he felt general soreness from throwing in a simulated game. Britton then threw a bullpen session on Sunday and it is expected that the setback was minor and he can begin a rehab assignment in the near future.
The Blue Jays have the following players on the injured list who will not play this series:
OF George Springer (10-day IL - quad strain)
UT Cavan Biggio (10-day IL - sprained neck)
C Alejandro Kirk (60-day IL - strained hip flexor)
RHP Thomas Hatch (60-day IL - elbow discomfort)
RHP Patrick Murphy (60-day IL - sprained shoulder)
RHP Julian Merryweather (60-day IL - strained oblique)
LHP Ryan Borucki (10-day IL - strained forearm flexor)
LHP Tommy Milone (10-day IL - shoulder inflammation)
RHP David Phelps (60-day IL - strained lat)
RHP Kirby Yates (60-day IL - Tommy John surgery)