Series Preview: Series 20 vs. Twins
Photo Via: Hannah Foslien — Getty ImagesCould this be rock bottom for the Yankees? Maybe. But it could be worse. The Yankees are slated to face two of their former starters, Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ, over the next three days. Happ, in particular, beating the Yankees would feel like rock bottom. Happ had his own issues with GM Brian Cashman. Happ wanted to pitch, even when Gerrit Cole was on full rest and the team needed to win. Happ did not want to pitch out of the bullpen in the Postseason. He was vocal about each incident and it did not sit well with the Yankees. Surely, he will be looking for revenge in his start this week. The other pitcher who the Yankees will face is Randy Dobnak. You might be familiar with his name, or you might know him as “Uber”, which Yankees fans chanted at him during his start in the Bronx in the 2019 Postseason. Dobnak was rather cool about the gamesmanship, but surely he would not mind getting a win here. To put it bluntly, the Yankees NEED to win this series to avoid embarrassment. The Twins have been much worse than the Yanks all season, which is remarkable in its own right.
Yankees Record: 31-29
Twins Record: 24-35
Season Series: 0-0
Lifetime Record: 1,125-768 (Yankees leading)
Game 1
Tuesday, June 8 — 8:10 pm — YES Network
Probable Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery - LHP (NYY) vs. Michael Pineda - RHP (MIN)
Game Notes: Gumby’s season is starting to take shape. His ERA is now down to 3.92 and he has a 3-1 record with 59 strikeouts. His last start against Tampa Bay was a win, so he needs to do the same here. Monty is a soft-contact specialist, so he needs to pick his spots against the lefty world-beaters in Minnesota’s lineup, led by Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz.
Big Mike Pineda is on extra rest since his last start, but it is by design. He was experiencing forearm soreness after surrendering 5 runs against the Orioles. He threw a bullpen session on Sunday and is good to go for tonight. Overall, Pineda is having a solid season with a 3.40 ERA and 3-3 record.
Game 2
Wednesday, June 9 — 8:10 pm — YES Network
Probable Pitchers: Gerrit Cole - RHP (NYY) vs. Randy Dobnak - RHP (MIN)
Game Notes: Gerrit Cole will have a lot of attention from across the league on him for this start. His spin rate was the lowest it has been since he signed with the Yankees, and there was a lot of speculation that it has to do with the league cracking down on the usage of foreign substances to enhance the revolution of the baseball. However, Cole did not get hit very hard against Tampa Bay, where he allowed 5 runs, but only 1 homer and a plethora of infield singles and bloop hits. Cole remarkably has already struck out 104 batters this season and has a 2.26 ERA.
Randy Dobnak rejoined the Twins rotation last month when Kenta Maeda was sidelined with a strained groin. Dobnak is 1-5 with a 6.19 ERA this season. He got off to a great start in the shortened 2020 season (1.78 ERA through 6 starts), but did not close it out well (4.05 ERA to end the season in 10 starts) and has not found any luck this year.
Game 3
Thursday, June 10 — 8:10 pm — YES Network
Probable Pitchers: Michael King - RHP (NYY) vs. J.A. Happ - LHP (MIN)
Game Notes: The Yankees have not officially named a starter for the third game, but it is expected that Michael King will keep his spot as the fifth man in the rotation while Corey Kluber recovers from a shoulder strain. King threw an immaculate inning against Boston on Friday, but was knocked around in the first inning for 3 runs, which spoiled the entire night. Overall, he has a serviceable 3.62 ERA on the season, and this would be a great time for him to lower that number.
Old friend J.A. Happ is not having a great 2021. He just missed throwing a no-hitter earlier in the season, but that was just about his only bright spot. He has a 5.61 ERA this year and it is even worse over his last 5 starts (10.17 ERA).
Sluggers to Watch
If anybody can stop the Yankees from embarrassing themselves, it is Aaron Judge. Number 99 is 4 for 10 (.400 AVG) with 2 home runs, 1 double, and 4 walks against J.A. Happ. However, the 6 times he was retired were all by the strikeout. He is 1 for 1 with a walk against Dobnak, which occurred in Dobnak’s Postseason start in 2019.
Judge has been the best hitter on the team this season (.938 OPS). He ranks in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity, expected batting average, and expected slugging, while also ranking in the 99th percentile in hard hit percentage and max exit velocity.
Gleyber Torres started seeing the ball really well recently. Over his last 18 games (which is also since he came off the COVID-related IL), Torres is 21 for 60 (.350 AVG), with 2 homers, 3 doubles, and 13 RBI. All 3 of his home runs this season are off fastballs, but he is hitting .333 against breaking pitches and .320 against offspeed pitches. He is 1 for 3 against Michael Pineda in his career, and has not faced Happ in live-game action in his career. He is 0 for 1 against Dobnak, which was a lineout in the 2019 ALDS.
Josh Donaldson will be looking to jump on a pitch in the first game against Montgomery. He is 0 for 2 in his career against the southpaw, but in 2021 he is mashing lefties. This season, he has a .907 OPS against left-handed pitchers and a .761 against righties. In general, he hits fastballs (.500 SLG) and offspeed pitches (.600 SLG) much better than breaking pitches (.231 SLG), which is to be expected.
Donaldson is 0 for 3 with one strikeout against Gerrit Cole in his career, and he has yet to face Michael King. He takes big cuts at the plate, and the Yankees have had trouble with hitters that make sure to get their ‘A swing’ off each time up (see: Bo Bichette, Yordan Álvarez, and Austin Meadows).
Watch out for Nelson Cruz as well. The slugging veteran’s power has slowed down a little since the first few weeks of the season, but it will not stay that way forever. He ranks in the 92nd percentile for barrel rate this season and has crushed left-handed pitching (.951 OPS). He also has 7 homers against righties, so he can truly hit anybody hard. He is 3 for 14 with 3 doubles and 5 strikeouts against Gerrit Cole, but has not faced Montgomery or King in the regular season before. After a rough May (.663 OPS), he is 5 for 13 (.385 AVG) with a 1.068 OPS so far in early June. The Yankees need to be careful pitching to him.
Injury Report
1B Luke Voit (oblique strain), OF Ryan LaMarre (pulled hamstring), RHP Clarke Schmidt (elbow strain), and RHP Darren O’Day (strained rotator cuff), RHP Corey Kluber (right shoulder strain), and CF Aaron Hicks (wrist surgery) are all out for the series.
Schmidt has already started throwing on flat ground and Kluber should progress to that sometime soon.
LaMarre begins a rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton tonight, but it is unclear if he will return to the majors when he is healthy.
RHP Luis Severino began a rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa on Sunday. It is expected that Severino will return to the Yankees this month, likely out of the bullpen at first.
LHP Zack Britton (arthroscopic elbow surgery) is mid-way through a rehab assignment. He was moved today from Double-A Somerset to Triple-A Scranton and should be joining the Yankees by the middle of the month.
UT Rob Refsnyder is on the 7-day injured list with a concussion after running into the centerfield wall in Baltimore. He may return during this series, but there is no word yet that he will. (Update: Refnsyder has been activated prior to the first game of this series).
The Twins have the following players on the 10-day injured list who will not play this series:
C Mitch Garver (groin surgery)
UT Luis Arráez (strained shoulder)
CF Byron Buxton (strained hip)
OF Max Kepler (strained hamstring)
RHP Kenta Maeda (strained groin)
RHP Shaun Anderson (blisters)
LHP Devin Smeltzer (elbow inflammation)
LHP Caleb Thielbar (strained groin)
Buxton completed a running program, but will need a rehab assignment prior to returning to big league action.
The Twins have the following players on the 60-day injured list who will not play in this series:
RHP Edwar Colina (arthroscopic elbow surgery)
OF Jake Cave (back)