Series Preview: Series 10 vs. Astros
Aaron Hicks’ 3-run homer off the right field foul pole against Justin Verlander and the Astros in the 2019 ALCS.We have been waiting for this series for over a year and it is finally here. The Yankees have not exactly instilled confidence in us so far this season, but the Bombers are coming off a sweep of A.J. Hinch’s Tigers. The next order business is a three-game series against the Houston Astros. Each team is 7-3 in their last 10 games, but the Astros are 15-13 while the Yanks are .500 at 14-14.
The Stadium is still at limited capacity (20%), so the Astros will not face the full force zoo that they would in a normal world. But the fans will still arrive angry and ready to serve Commissioner Manfred’s punishment of public shame to the Astros’ organization.
There will definitely be a lot of trash talk between players, fans, and coaches. Astros’ centerfielder Myles Straw already commented on Yankees fans.
Luckily, Yankees fans were granted permission to boo the Astros. I was worried for a second that fans would think twice. However, if Martin Maldonado says they love it (biggest lie ever), maybe we should think twice…
The Astros are going to play this game for a while: pretend you like getting booed and pretend they are the victim to make themselves feel better.
With that being said, the Yankees need to show some life in order to defeat Houston. If the team plays like it did in April, the odds are the Yankees will be unhappy after this set. The Astros’ starting pitching is solid, the lineup is definitely good, and the bullpen is formidable. This will not be an easy series for the Bombers, so they need to capitalize on run-scoring opportunities and plays that will help them get out of jams (double-play balls, getting the ball in quickly from the outfield).
Game 1
Tuesday, May 4 — 7:05 pm — YES Network, ESPN
Probable Pitchers: Zack Greinke - RHP (HOU) vs. Domingo Germán - RHP (NYY)
Game Notes: The Stadium will be rocking (compared to its capacity) for this one. Germán looked sharp last time on the mound (7 shutout innings), but it was against the Orioles. Germán needs to pick up where he left off, dotting the outside corner with his 2-seam fastball. But, he does need to be careful about right-handed hitters using the short porch to their advantage if he pitches away all game.
Zack Greinke has a 3.44 ERA on the season, but it has been a rollercoaster of sorts. As you probably know, Greinke loves changing speeds and manipulating the baseball. He will sometimes reach back into the low-90’s for his fastball, and will throw the occasional eephus pitch in the mid-50’s.
Hopefully the Yankees trot out their best lineup and do not pull the “load management” type card for this intense first game. After the off day, it is nearly a guarantee that we will see their best nine.
Game 2
Wednesday, May 5 — 7:05 pm — YES Network
Probable Pitchers: Luis García - RHP (HOU) vs. Jordan Montgomery - LHP (NYY)
Game Notes: He is probably an unfamiliar name to most Yanks’ fans, but García has a 2.70 ERA this season. He has made 3 starts and surprisingly has an 0-3 record. The 24-year-old signed as an international free agent with the Astros in July of 2017. He even racked up some playoff experience last season. To right-handed hitters, García throws a mix of: 1) 4-seam fastball (93.5 mph); 2) Slider (79.2 mph); and 3) Cutter (86.9 mph). His slider features a great deal of horizontal break. Right-handed hitters do not see the ball well against him (.496 OPS). To left-handed hitters, García goes with the same fastball and cutter, but also uses a changeup (83.2 mph) and curveball (77 mph). He typically sticks with the fastball-changeup combination, but finds less success against lefties (.900 OPS). Lucky for him, the Yankees do not have a bunch of lefties to stack against him.
Jordan Montgomery has been on the brink of mediocre all season. Left-handed hitters have had a really tough time against Monty (.304 OPS), but right-handed hitters have fared better (.790 OPS). Montgomery has only pitched beyond 5 innings twice this season, so a bit of a deeper outing is a nice goal for him. A lot of his pitches have been sailing away arm-side recently, especially in the first inning of his outings. We should know right away which guy we are getting on Wednesday.
Game 3
Thursday, May 6 — 1:05 pm — YES Network, MLB Network
Probable Pitchers: Lance McCullers, Jr. - RHP (HOU) vs. Gerrit Cole - RHP (NYY)
Game Notes: Here is the big pitching matchup. McCullers famously threw 24 consecutive curveballs against the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS in Houston. Gerrit Cole pitched for Houston in 2018 and 2019.
Cole’s start against his old team will be the most intense regular season start of his Yankees tenure. He has been unhittable this season (1.43 ERA), but between the familiarity and the talent of these Astros hitters, things can change quickly. Cole has yanked his fastball and sliders to his glove side a few times recently, but he will need to hit his spots in this matchup.
To righties, McCullers likes to deploy the sinker-slider combo. Lefties see a ton of curveballs and a mix of the sinker and a changeup. Overall, lefties hit slightly better against him, but strike out more often.
Sluggers to Watch
Carlos Correa is a career .318 hitter with a .971 OPS at Yankee Stadium. He also is a career .340 hitter with a 1.040 OPS against the Yankees. We all know he wants to have a good series in the Bronx, so look for him to be fired up.
Michael Brantley is always a tough out. Even though he hits better against righties, Brantley is still hitting .298 this season against lefties. He is difficult to plan for, so the Yankees need to be careful with the decisions they make regarding how to pitch him and whether it is worth going to a lesser left-handed pitcher to face him.
Giancarlo Stanton takes a 9-game hitting streak with him into this series. He has been absolutely smoking the baseball, even though he is not hitting as many home runs as he usually does when he is on fire. The three right-handed starters will give Stanton a challenge, but if recent games are any indication, he will be ready for it.
Aaron Judge looked more like himself against Detroit. He got two days off in Baltimore, then played each game against the Tigers. He hit a grand slam to the right field upper deck in the first game. If Judge is not late on fastballs, then good luck pitching to him.
Injury Report
Luke Voit (torn meniscus) is scheduled to play a rehab game with Triple-A Scranton on Tuesday. He will miss this series.
Clarke Schmidt (elbow strain) looks “fantastic” in his rehab and should be back this season, possibly even in the majors, according to Yankees senior director of player development Kevin Reese. He will not appear in this series, however.
Zack Britton (arthroscopic elbow surgery), Darren O’Day (strained rotator cuff), and Luis Severino (Tommy John surgery) are all out for the series.
Luis Severino is scheduled to throw live at-bats next week, which is a good sign.
Starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi (forearm strain), Framber Valdez (fractured finger), and Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery) will not pitch for Houston in this series.
Relievers Pedro Báez (shoulder discomfort), Josh James (hip surgery), Austin Pruitt (elbow surgery - hairline fracture), Enoli Paredes (oblique discomfort), and Blake Taylor (sprained ankle) are all out for the series.
Astros pitcher Francis Martes is suspended for 89 games of the 2021 season due to a violation of MLB’s PED policy. He is on the restricted list.